News Desk
DUBAI: Ongoing geopolitical tensions across the Middle East are influencing how investors, lenders and advisors assess real estate risk across the UAE, says Rus Kolinko, Managing Partner at Archers Valuation & Advisory.
While real estate activity across Dubai and Abu Dhabi remains relatively resilient, Archers notes that conversations around risk, liquidity and downside protection have become more prominent, particularly within larger or more complex transactions.
Archers’ in-house research finds the capital continues to enter the UAE market, supported by the country’s relative stability, favourable tax and business environments and safe-haven positioning. However, investors and lenders are becoming more selective around asset quality, income durability, refinancing exposure and execution risk as regional geopolitical, macroeconomic and financing conditions continue to evolve.
Archers says this is contributing to stronger demand for independent valuation and technical due diligence advice, especially in refinancing, restructuring, institutional acquisitions and transactions involving complex ownership structures. The trend is also evident in selected M&A transactions, portfolio disposals and sale-and-leaseback structures, where independent analysis can support pricing, financing and risk assessment decisions.
Rus Kolinko, Managing Partner at Archers Valuation & Advisory, said, “what we are seeing is not a withdrawal of capital from the UAE market. If anything, the UAE continues to attract capital during periods of regional uncertainty. However, the approach to risk has become more disciplined.”
“Lenders are asking harder questions. Investors are spending more time assessing downside scenarios, while legal and restructuring advisors are becoming involved earlier in transactions,” he added.
Archers notes that valuation uncertainty can become more pronounced when market conditions shift quickly but transactional evidence has not yet fully adjusted. Pricing expectations, financing and construction costs, yield requirements and investor sentiment can move faster than completed transactions, increasing the importance of careful analysis, professional judgement and independent advice.
“In more complex transactions, the discussion is often no longer simply about value, but about understanding the assumptions, risks and technical considerations that sit behind it. That naturally increases the importance of independent analysis, particularly for lenders, restructuring professionals and institutional investors who require robust and defensible analysis,” Kolinko said.
Technical due diligence is also becoming more risk-focused, with investors considering operational resilience, future capital expenditure, regulatory risks, ESG considerations and long-term asset performance alongside traditional physical condition and compliance matters.
